Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:06:38 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A5E339F221D0F0ED244097DC589E002F75C886D6D0A678BC6DFFEBC71F1DA460
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details