Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:35:06 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A3F4A548C2245E30AE7763A96D375D94DB9F8FF535258AC30D0516912236BC2E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details