Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 09:27:32 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A3BD56D2343E7DB785CC9EBDB5DE5B11B77ED328B534167E16A9BDB3B55297B5
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details