Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 21:26:29 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A25F460D721E3C927B391FB0F8BD539BE3296CD3BA1613FF2710FB221C976936
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details