Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 01:30:35 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A248CF8853ED023AF7580CA24E6E38A54679E3EB120EBE16D09E4B05AEA10993
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details