Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:17:43 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A2008A2B0ACA4F77B6192673E9CFE1739EBCD0EC560ED4C01F951877AB3663DB
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details