Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 15:46:25 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A09A72A36D669A9A440026EBE759B35B04BFB657C7656BB15B3330AE598484F0
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details