Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:41:45 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: A04A079AE46314182B0D95A3DC86147064C21E09600BEF1AFF115F67C6B2FAEA
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details