Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 18:34:47 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 9EE4F554C49EB637401551FB5F7454B396805AD573935EB8B8ABDA11C38C371C
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details