Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 15:14:44 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 9D5E56C81DBB52C00CF33C7CDA25FE97A2EDB91F6A8EA4FBB840C286157830A4
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
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