Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 14:50:59 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 9C7936C55B51CFDB7181462FE0A5AFB13E2438D2BB8C1400080BC4F39E8783C3
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details