Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:31:30 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 998C9A41F7CDD39CB6A03CEE8A571C7A9478FFA26A3D2CC93D6ADB3E14DC1C1F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details