Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 10:15:02 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 94CCC019D26653BE85FD40C36E06C18F8ED8C11B7B2AB44C8534F45846AB5FE2
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details