Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 19:49:46 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 946EB8449EA97864316F1F388EA4D7662D828D7F439403B0BEF82BF2E20A4510
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details