Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 18:25:00 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 8E71DE91F39329BB5DAAD5CA0FF299ADB587911B89FF8BB65E3C50648B52C227
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details