Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:31:21 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 8D41D89382431CADE628282C66545087EF8DC2D717C5F6C94D8EAD3987084AB6
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details