Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 21:21:50 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 89A7F796EC61FC9EFE4EC29D39BABC83F100C21834C69FC3257E5AFE138856A9
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details