Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 07:42:50 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 847EE33D3438A8107F424DFF909BFB644AB970A52A87F511EF22E3C91D55DC07
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details