Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:26:58 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 838BDF8A3215A65B5952A06958CE08C7FD483A772B21B91A91F73EB258C2C730
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details