Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 00:46:10 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 816CBE5DEA9152E9152411DD9DCC7AFC03AAEE7EAE6ABC57FFB9A5F1EBB9023F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details