Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:52:04 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 80C235B5B1C35D64B3DFF5975FB5DBF3D8D8954D1B16CDC45003CBA3DE645E3C
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details