Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 19:12:53 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 8022E689CE0826EA7ED60685A4129F49C07C5CDD71C8AABBC220B08C0117B866
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details