Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:08:02 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7FD033922184BD73927421402AD97616999F3D252D328A4926C9D7CEA47FA9BC
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details