Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:40:09 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7EB8B4A5397BA50BDDB988A0B5A72DFD4F357CD71AB7D96B27D7BF7BF26394CB
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details