Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 14:40:08 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7E9F8365F40AF94FBE5E950EF64A1D9F910B7FE8A52091C1A9B3A420119C589B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details