Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 20:27:54 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7D7F8EE93DB435014FD5C43F51486E5192B751B69478F90B5C5FE6AC27C845F2
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details