Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 01:59:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7AE24C59AD3B0B71FD3FE3CE46C8A04697C65C7CF13BF4BB531EACEEB0C25896
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details