Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 07:08:39 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7A2D56502C5AA9B330C429DA861934DE400E079C81CB02065F3ED2560CE268C6
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details