Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 12:00:50 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7995C3495B214B7873B9669020D2B0DEC3A6C313050B409D9A59ECD3DE11DBA5
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details