Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 14:03:22 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 78B8020C299ED270762B0BC07179AEC23E1855272F2D2A337C123F30BD9A4BE5
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details