Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 05:03:32 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 77399B5EE65AAE71376E6995AA60E84A5837CA23D1E66602A98325BC4D05E29B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details