Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 23:36:23 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 75DD871B3E4AA25D59D4B72ED954A4FF32108CB1CFAE01DDEF79AE089C8A0E28
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details