Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 22:28:35 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 6DE1ED691F81FA7200566AC590C2F414F867B347142EFB25B66B2CBEC5F19C9E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details