Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 05:26:57 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 69EED84D1BA4A8FBEDAE832EE293833D7C3A8766EE7E524B168C5B63D643E15A
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details