Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:47:47 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 6022162B6AB7A3CACF1A3CED3D8A5EE7651C0C5F1BCA9EABAE1DBA920F98CB14
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details