Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 08:18:31 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 600C1E4098A6F683431440B5EB545F50113E9F6F77DFCE0E946B13711A5C8C26
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details