Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:10:58 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 5F90C730BD2F6E7E38DCF909130BCEE027924EF7AA34EEFFB49E0B3C6E13AE3F
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details