Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 03:39:29 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 5997E182F762323CE951EBF386072D3AE1531BFCB77CF2DA478BC9454F66C2F1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details