Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 03:57:05 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 5633CC849B6E9D7640264B1DBBEB0737D05739EC19792B67E11023502D68345B
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details