Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 02:24:19 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 554E91CACCE2BC7A478D57A024EACA63F970F9E043FB346AB15078264AC3D19E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details