Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 16:02:08 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4F0BAED3CB8414210D2B410A0283A6170AD68C1740F36C9D47DAEE732124154E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details