Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 03:41:48 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4EC366A36B07F45E029CC8CF407621970A3E37CD7223B8F3E2371F36E63C6633
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details