Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 04:17:44 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4D4B2FEDEC3EA6F9E45DF8C47C508294B02D821EA10B7E2D7A86FB83327E3640
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details