Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 21:15:56 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4CBD73D7C5FC45FCF55108ABB6A59DBA1D91677725EB568EDC85C65D9F519D87
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details