Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 11:30:52 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4BFE9DC4925F50A1D544B173C284A8FEB17255DAF64333650607E30ED8F7A2AC
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details