Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 12:00:07 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4BDDC199531757FB04FDAFFE21BDA6ADCD0E9B32B2F8AEF020A73FD74C60B491
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details