Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 19:44:14 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4B892AFF1FE388FB15F203F66FB98A751B18E8A1A066F30E1FAE7B5CC50EB71E
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details