Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 13:20:44 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4B36B0E9F5BD26E1D0392B2B1A8A09EE1FB344ECB8B6D5A0F41E43746B04B5D0
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details