Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-09 03:30:38 UTC - NOT_HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4ADCF83FAC46480A8017B7012D7228A8FA31DF3560F27FB735E55623AB802240
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details