Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 17:08:01 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 4A5C36F0252116C4CF921C815C54EF91E1B145F5B6A10D2F85DA46CCD9D935C1
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details